A political storm is gathering inside Zanu PF and Emmerson Mnangagwa is at the centre of it. As he prepares for the party’s annual conference set for 13 to 18 October in Mutare, the stakes have never been higher. The question that haunts the corridors of power is simple yet explosive. Will Mnangagwa push forward with his secret 2030 ambition or back off and accept the constitutional end of his presidency in 2028
Mnangagwa has three unappealing paths. He could call for a referendum to change the constitution and remove term limits. That would expose him to public rejection and humiliation. He could attempt to use Parliament to delay the 2028 elections and quietly extend his rule. Or he could walk away and let history take its course. So far he insists he is a constitutionalist who respects the limit. But that is not what his actions say
Last year he engineered a party resolution in Bulawayo that gave him the green light to run beyond two terms. That single move laid bare the deception. Mnangagwa says one thing and does another. His game is not just about clinging to power. It is about fear. He is terrified of what comes next
His biggest fear wears army fatigues. Constantino Chiwenga the vice president and retired general who helped remove Mugabe is no longer trusted. Mnangagwa knows Chiwenga would never protect him or his family. In fact he suspects Chiwenga would come after their stolen wealth and possibly prosecute them. It is a relationship poisoned by paranoia and betrayal
But the crisis is not only about trust. It is also about tribe. After Mugabe’s long Zezuru rule Mnangagwa’s Karanga allies believe it is their turn to lead. They will not accept another Zezuru at the top and Chiwenga’s ethnic identity is a threat. In Zimbabwe ethnicity is power and this reality defines everything from succession plans to cabinet appointments
As Mnangagwa tries to outplay Chiwenga others are entering the game. Kudakwashe Tagwirei the shady tycoon with close links to the president is quietly positioning himself for a bigger role. He denies wanting the presidency but his actions suggest otherwise. His money gives him influence but Chiwenga has already blocked him from joining the Central Committee. That is a warning shot
Chris Mutsvangwa the mouthy party spokesperson is another wild card. He says he does not want power but no one believes him. His recent moves hint at someone preparing for opportunity. Then there is General Philip Valerio Sibanda a silent strategist with the respect of the military. Mnangagwa tried to push him into the politburo last year but failed. Still the idea of installing Sibanda as a loyal successor is very much alive. He is expected to retire soon and that moment may open a path
The power games inside Zanu PF are now a clash between second generation elites and the war veterans. Mnangagwa is part of the second wave. Chiwenga and Sibanda represent the military elite who now feel it is their turn to rule. Some say Chiwenga is too brutal and determined to lose. Others believe Mnangagwa will risk everything to make Sibanda his shield
What cannot be denied is that Zanu PF is no longer a party of unity. Since Mugabe’s fall it has become a battlefield of secrets and sabotage. Mnangagwa’s grip on power is slipping and every ally is a potential rival. The conference in October may look like routine politics. It is not. It is a battle for survival. One mistake could collapse the entire regime
This is the silence before the explosion. And every man in Zanu PF knows it.
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